Geography – Earthquake and volcanic hazards and impacts | e-Consult

Probabilistic forecasting plays a crucial role in volcanic hazard assessment by quantifying the likelihood of an eruption within a specific timeframe. Instead of predicting a precise eruption date, probabilistic forecasts provide a range of possible outcomes, each with an associated probability. This approach acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in volcanic prediction and provides a more realistic assessment of risk.

Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Forecasts:

• Deterministic Forecasts: Attempt to predict a specific eruption date and style. Often based on a single model or set of assumptions. Advantages: Provides a clear and concise message. Disadvantages: Highly susceptible to error and can lead to false alarms. Does not adequately reflect the uncertainty in volcanic processes.
• Probabilistic Forecasts: Provide a range of possible eruption scenarios, each with an associated probability. Based on statistical models and expert judgment. Advantages: Acknowledges uncertainty and provides a more realistic assessment of risk. Allows for a more nuanced communication of hazard. Disadvantages: Can be difficult for the public to understand. May not provide a clear and concise message.

Advantages of Probabilistic Forecasting:

• Provides a more realistic assessment of volcanic risk.
• Allows for a more nuanced communication of hazard.
• Facilitates better decision-making by authorities and the public.
• Can be used to inform risk mitigation strategies.

Communicating Probabilistic Forecasts to the Public:

• Use clear and simple language: Avoid technical jargon and explain the concepts in a way that is easy to understand.
• Use visuals: Charts, graphs, and maps can help to illustrate the probabilities and potential impacts of an eruption.
• Provide context: Explain the meaning of the probabilities and how they relate to the likelihood of different outcomes. Example: "There is a 20% chance of a moderate eruption in the next 5 years."
• Emphasize the range of possible outcomes: Avoid presenting probabilistic forecasts as definitive predictions.
• Provide guidance on what to do in the event of an eruption: Ensure that the public knows how to protect themselves and their families.
• Use multiple communication channels: Utilize websites, social media, and traditional media to reach a wide audience.

Conclusion:

Probabilistic forecasting is an essential tool for volcanic hazard assessment. While it presents challenges in communication, its ability to acknowledge and quantify uncertainty makes it a more realistic and valuable approach than deterministic forecasting. Effective communication is key to ensuring that the public understands the risks and can take appropriate action to protect themselves.