International Trade and Globalisation – Foreign Exchange Rates
Objective
Understand the reasons for buying and selling foreign currencies, with a focus on workers' remittances.
1. What are Workers' Remittances?
Remittances are funds that migrant workers send back to their home country, usually to support family members. They are a major source of foreign currency inflow for many developing economies.
2. Why Do People Buy and Sell Foreign Currencies?
Trade transactions – Importers need foreign currency to pay for goods, exporters receive foreign currency for sales abroad.
Travel and tourism – Tourists exchange their home currency for the destination’s currency.
Investment – Investors purchase foreign assets, requiring conversion into the foreign currency.
Speculation – Traders buy or sell currencies to profit from expected changes in exchange rates.
Workers' remittances – Migrant workers convert earnings into the currency of their home country to send money home.
3. How Remittances Influence Foreign Exchange Markets
When a migrant worker in Country A sends money to a relative in Country B, the following steps occur:
The worker exchanges the host‑country currency (e.g., USD) for the home‑country currency (e.g., PHP) at a bank or money‑transfer service.
The foreign exchange market records a sale of USD and a purchase of PHP.
The inflow of PHP increases the supply of foreign currency (USD) in the market, potentially affecting the exchange rate.
4. Impact on the Exchange Rate
Increased demand for the home‑country currency (from remittance inflows) can cause its value to appreciate. The magnitude of the change can be expressed as:
where \(E_{0}\) is the original exchange rate (home‑currency per unit of foreign currency) and \(\Delta E\) is the change resulting from the remittance flow.
5. Example Calculation
Assume the exchange rate is 1 USD = 50 PHP. A remittance of USD 10 million is sent to the Philippines.
Initial foreign‑currency supply: 10 million USD.
After the remittance, the market receives an additional 10 million USD, increasing supply.
If the increased supply leads to a new rate of 1 USD = 48 PHP, the percentage change is:
The negative sign indicates a depreciation of the foreign currency (USD) relative to the PHP, i.e., the PHP has appreciated.
6. Benefits and Challenges for the Receiving Country
Benefits
Increased household income and consumption.
Higher foreign‑exchange reserves, improving balance of payments.
Potential for investment in education, health, and small businesses.
Challenges
Currency appreciation may reduce export competitiveness.
Dependence on remittances can make the economy vulnerable to external shocks.
Inflationary pressure if increased demand outpaces supply of goods.
7. Diagrammatic Representation
Suggested diagram: Supply‑and‑demand graph for the home‑country currency showing a rightward shift in demand due to remittance inflows, leading to an appreciation of the currency.
8. Summary Checklist
Key Point
Explanation
Definition of remittances
Money sent by migrant workers to their home country.
Why remittances affect exchange rates
They increase demand for the home‑country currency, potentially causing appreciation.
Formula for percentage change
\(\displaystyle \% \Delta E = \frac{\Delta E}{E_{0}} \times 100\)
Potential economic impacts
Higher income, improved reserves, but possible loss of export competitiveness.