How birth rates, death rates and net migration can vary between countries

Economic Development – Population

What is Population?

Population is the total number of people living in a country at a given time. Think of it as the “size of the crowd” at a school assembly. It changes every year because people are born, die, or move in and out.

Birth Rates (B)

Birth rate is the number of live births per 1,000 people in a year. A high birth rate is like a factory that keeps producing new workers. 🌱

  • High in many African and South‑Asian countries.

  • Low in most European and North‑American countries.

Example: In 2023, Niger had a birth rate of about 45 births per 1,000 people, while Japan had only 7.

Death Rates (D)

Death rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people in a year. It’s like the “maintenance cost” of a population. 🛠️

  • Higher where healthcare is poor or diseases are common.

  • Lower where medical technology and nutrition are advanced.

Example: In 2023, Sierra Leone had a death rate of about 12 per 1,000, whereas Switzerland had 6.

Net Migration (M)

Net migration = people moving in – people moving out. It’s like a “population traffic flow.” 🚗

  1. Positive net migration (more in than out) can boost a country’s workforce.

  2. Negative net migration (more out than in) can shrink the labour market.

Example: Canada had a net migration of +0.5 million in 2023, while Russia had –0.2 million.

Population Growth Formula

The basic relationship is:

\$P{t+1} = Pt + B - D + M\$

Where:

  • \$P_t\$ = population at time t

  • \$B\$ = births per 1,000 people

  • \$D\$ = deaths per 1,000 people

  • \$M\$ = net migration per 1,000 people

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Think of it as a four‑stage journey from “pre‑industrial” to “post‑industrial” societies.

  1. Stage 1: High birth & high death → stable population.

  2. Stage 2: High birth & falling death → rapid growth.

  3. Stage 3: Falling birth & falling death → growth slows.

  4. Stage 4: Low birth & low death → stable or ageing population.

Example: India is in Stage 3, while Germany is in Stage 4.

Population Pyramids

A pyramid shows the age distribution. Wide base = many young people; narrow top = few elderly.

• A “wide base” pyramid indicates high birth rates (e.g., Nigeria). 🌍

• A “block” shape indicates low birth rates (e.g., Italy). 🏛️

Use pyramids to predict future economic challenges like pension systems or labour shortages.

Country Comparison Table

CountryBirth Rate (per 1,000)Death Rate (per 1,000)Net Migration (per 1,000)
Nigeria44.56.3-0.2
Japan7.410.5+0.5
Germany9.110.0+0.3
India17.47.0-0.1

Exam Tips for IGCSE Economics 0455

  • Understand the DTM: Know the characteristics of each stage and be able to classify a country.

  • Use examples: Cite at least two countries when explaining birth, death, or migration trends.

  • Population pyramid analysis: Practice reading pyramids and linking them to economic issues.

  • Formula recall: Memorise \$P{t+1} = Pt + B - D + M\$ and explain each component.

  • Time management: Allocate 5 minutes to outline your answer before writing.

Good luck! 🚀 Remember, a clear structure and real‑world examples will impress the examiner.