Calculation of deficits and surpluses on the current account of the balance of payments and its component sections

Published by Patrick Mutisya · 8 days ago

IGCSE Economics 0455 – Current Account of the Balance of Payments

International Trade and Globalisation – Current Account of the Balance of Payments

1. What is the Current Account?

The current account records all transactions that involve the export or import of goods, services, income and current transfers between a country and the rest of the world during a given period (usually a year). It is one of the three main sections of the balance of payments, the others being the capital account and the financial account.

2. Main Components of the Current Account

ComponentDescriptionTypical Inflow (Credit)Typical Outflow (Debit)
Trade in Goods (Merchandise)Exports and imports of physical products.Export receiptsImport payments
Trade in ServicesExports and imports of services such as tourism, transport, banking, insurance, royalties.Service export earningsService import payments
Primary IncomeFactor income earned abroad (e.g., wages, dividends, interest) and paid to foreign investors.Income received from abroadIncome paid to foreign owners
Secondary (Current) TransfersOne‑way transfers such as foreign aid, remittances, gifts.Transfers receivedTransfers sent

3. Calculating the Current Account Balance

The current account balance (CAB) is the net sum of all credits minus all debits in the four components above.

Mathematically:

\$\text{CAB} = (XG + XS + IR + TR) - (MG + MS + IP + TP)\$

where:

  • \$X_G\$ = Exports of goods
  • \$M_G\$ = Imports of goods
  • \$X_S\$ = Exports of services
  • \$M_S\$ = Imports of services
  • \$I_R\$ = Primary income received from abroad
  • \$I_P\$ = Primary income paid to foreign investors
  • \$T_R\$ = Current transfers received
  • \$T_P\$ = Current transfers paid

4. Deficit vs. Surplus

  • Current‑account surplus: When total credits exceed total debits (\$\text{CAB} > 0\$). The country is a net lender to the rest of the world.
  • Current‑account deficit: When total debits exceed total credits (\$\text{CAB} < 0\$). The country is a net borrower from the rest of the world.

5. Worked Example

Assume the following annual data (in £ millions):

ComponentCredit (inflow)Debit (outflow)
Exports of goods120
Imports of goods150
Exports of services45
Imports of services30
Primary income received20
Primary income paid25
Current transfers received10
Current transfers paid5

Calculate total credits and total debits:

\$\text{Total Credits}=120+45+20+10=195\$

\$\text{Total Debits}=150+30+25+5=210\$

Current‑account balance:

\$\text{CAB}=195-210=-15\ \text{million £}\$

The economy runs a current‑account deficit of £15 million.

6. Interpretation of Results

  1. A surplus may indicate strong export competitiveness, high foreign investment income, or large remittance inflows.
  2. A deficit can arise from high import demand, large overseas investment returns paid out, or substantial foreign aid sent.
  3. Persistent deficits may lead to a buildup of external debt, while persistent surpluses can create foreign exchange appreciation pressures.

7. Link to Globalisation

Globalisation intensifies the flow of goods, services, capital and labour, which directly affects each component of the current account:

  • Trade liberalisation usually raises both exports and imports, potentially narrowing the trade‑goods balance.
  • Digital services and offshore outsourcing expand the services component.
  • Greater mobility of labour increases remittance flows (a major part of secondary transfers).
  • International investment portfolios affect primary income receipts and payments.

8. Summary Checklist for Examination

  • Identify the four components of the current account.
  • Know the sign convention: credits (+), debits (–).
  • Be able to write the formula for the current‑account balance.
  • Calculate surplus or deficit from given data.
  • Explain the economic implications of a surplus or deficit.
  • Relate changes in the current account to globalisation trends.

Suggested diagram: Flow diagram showing inflows (credits) and outflows (debits) for each current‑account component.