Differences in population growth

Economic Development – Differences in Economic Development Between Countries

5.1 Living Standards

Key indicators required by the syllabus

Evaluation (AO1‑AO2)

• GDP per head is useful for comparing short‑term economic growth, but a country with a high GDP per head can still have large pockets of poverty.
• HDI gives a more rounded view of well‑being, yet it cannot capture everything that matters to individuals (e.g., political freedom, cultural factors).
• In exam answers, state the purpose of each indicator, then discuss at least one strength and one weakness.

5.2 Poverty

Definitions (syllabus 5.2)

• Absolute poverty – living on less than a set minimum (e.g., $1.90 a day) required to meet basic needs.
• Relative poverty – living significantly below the average standard of living in a society (e.g., < 60 % of median household income).

Major causes (exam‑level bullet list)

• Low levels of education and skills → low productivity and wages.
• Unemployment or under‑employment, especially in low‑skill sectors.
• Poor health and high disease burden (reduces labour supply).
• Inadequate infrastructure (transport, electricity) limiting business activity.
• Geographic isolation or adverse climate (e.g., landlocked, drought‑prone).
• Weak institutions and governance (corruption, unstable policy environment).

Policy responses (AO2)

1. Direct support – cash transfers, food subsidies, social safety nets.
2. Education & skills programmes – free primary/secondary schooling, vocational training.
3. Health interventions – universal primary health care, vaccination, maternal health.
4. Employment creation – public‑works projects, incentives for labour‑intensive industries.
5. Micro‑finance & credit schemes – enable small‑scale entrepreneurship.

5.3 Population – Rates, Factors, Effects and the Concept of Optimum Population

5.3.1 Measuring Population Change

Key demographic rates (required by the syllabus)

• Crude birth rate (CBR) = (Number of live births ÷ Mid‑year population) × 1 000
• Crude death rate (CDR) = (Number of deaths ÷ Mid‑year population) × 1 000
• Net migration rate (NMR) = (Immigrants – Emigrants ÷ Mid‑year population) × 1 000
• Population growth rate (PGR) = (ΔP ÷ P₀) × 100 % where ΔP = change in population over the year and P₀ = population at the start of the year.

Relationship between the rates

\[

\text{PGR}= \frac{\text{Births}-\text{Deaths}+\text{Net Migration}}{P_{0}}\times100\%

\]

5.3.2 Additional demographic concepts

• Dependency ratio = (Population aged 0‑14 + Population aged 65 +)/Population aged 15‑64 × 100. Indicates the pressure on the working‑age population.
• Demographic dividend – a period when a falling dependency ratio (more workers, fewer dependents) can boost economic growth if jobs and education keep pace.
• Optimum population – the size at which a country can achieve the highest possible standard of living given its resources, technology and institutions. The idea is contested because “optimum” varies with policy choices and technological change.

5.3.3 Why demographic rates differ between countries?

5.3.4 Comparative Data (2023)

5.3.5 Implications of Different Growth Rates for Economic Development

• High growth (≥ 2 % / year)

  • Large, youthful labour force – potential demographic dividend.
  • Risk of overwhelming education, health, housing and transport if job creation lags.
  • Per‑capita income may fall in the short term.

• Moderate/balanced growth (1‑2 % / year)

  • Steady labour supply while allowing time for investment in human capital.
  • Typically linked with sustainable rises in GDP per head.

• Low or negative growth (≤ 0 % / year)

  • Rising old‑age dependency ratio.
  • Potential labour shortages, especially in low‑skill sectors.
  • Domestic demand may stagnate; economies may rely on immigration or automation.

5.3.6 Case‑Study Summaries (Syllabus 5.4 – Linking Demography to Development)

Nigeria – Rapid Growth, Development Challenges

• Growth rate: 2.6 % (2023); CBR = 36.5, CDR = 12.9.
• Fertility 5.3 children/woman – driven by cultural norms, limited contraception, low female schooling.
• Economic impact: Youth bulge offers a possible dividend, but unemployment (~33 %) and pressure on schools & hospitals are severe.
• Population‑pyramid: Expansive (wide base, narrow top).
• Policy focus: Expand universal secondary education for girls, scale community‑based family‑planning, promote labour‑intensive agro‑processing.

Germany – Near‑Zero Growth, Ageing Society

• Growth rate: –0.1 % (2023); CBR = 9.4, CDR = 11.3, NMR = +2.3.
• Fertility 1.5 – well below replacement; life expectancy ≈ 81 years.
• Economic impact: Shrinking workforce, rising pension costs, reliance on skilled migrants.
• Population‑pyramid: Inverted (narrow base, wide top).
• Policy focus: Generous parental leave, child‑care subsidies, points‑based immigration targeting skilled labour.

Bangladesh – Transition from High to Moderate Growth

• Growth rate: 1.0 % (2023); CBR = 17.1, CDR = 5.6.
• Fertility fell from 6.3 (1990) to 2.0 (2023) due to massive investment in female education and a national family‑planning programme.
• Economic impact: Faster per‑capita GDP growth, reduced poverty, expanding manufacturing export sector.
• Population‑pyramid: Shifting from expansive to more rectangular (signalling the start of a demographic dividend).
• Policy focus: Continue education reforms, improve rural health services, develop infrastructure for urban migration.

5.4 Differences in Economic Development Between Countries (Beyond Demography)

The syllabus expects students to discuss at least three non‑demographic drivers of divergent development paths.

Linking the drivers to the case‑studies

• Nigeria – Low productivity, heavy reliance on agriculture, weak institutions → per‑capita GDP remains low despite rapid population growth.
• Germany – High productivity, service‑dominant economy, strong institutions, and skilled‑migration policy sustain high living standards despite a shrinking population.
• Bangladesh – Improving human capital and a focused export‑oriented manufacturing sector have compensated for modest natural resources, enabling rapid per‑capita growth.

5.5 Strategies to Manage Population Change (Syllabus Requirement)

1. Education, especially for girls – each additional year of secondary schooling reduces fertility by ≈ 0.2 children.
2. Accessible reproductive health services – contraception, antenatal care and safe delivery lower both fertility and infant mortality.
3. Pro‑natal incentives in low‑growth economies – paid parental leave, child‑care subsidies, tax credits.
4. Skilled‑migration policies – points‑based systems, recognition of foreign qualifications, integration programmes.
5. Urban planning & infrastructure investment – affordable housing, public transport, water & sanitation to accommodate rapid urbanisation.
6. Public‑health improvements – vaccination, nutrition programmes, disease control to reduce “insurance” births.

5.6 Suggested Diagrams for Exam Answers

• Line graph of annual population growth rates (1990‑2023) for Nigeria, India, China, Germany and Bangladesh – annotate major policy milestones.
• Bar chart comparing CBR, CDR and NMR (2023) for the same five countries.
• Population‑pyramid diagrams:

  • Nigeria – expansive.
  • Germany – inverted.
  • Bangladesh – transitioning (rectangular with a slightly narrowing base).

• Scatter plot: Fertility rate (y‑axis) vs. female secondary‑school enrolment (% of women aged 25 + ) – demonstrates the inverse relationship.
• Bar chart of real GDP per head and HDI for the five case‑studies – shows how demographic and non‑demographic factors combine.

5.7 Summary

Differences in population growth arise from a mixture of cultural, economic, health‑related, policy and migration factors. High growth can supply a large labour force and a potential demographic dividend, but only if education, health and job creation keep pace. Low or negative growth creates ageing pressures and may require immigration or automation to sustain economic activity. However, demographic trends are only one part of the picture; productivity, sectoral composition, human capital, natural‑resource endowments and institutional quality also drive the wide gaps in living standards and poverty between countries. Effective development strategies therefore need to align demographic realities with policies that raise productivity, improve health and education, and manage migration.