How birth rates, death rates and net migration can vary between countries

Published by Patrick Mutisya · 14 days ago

IGCSE Economics – Economic Development: Population

Economic Development – Population

Learning Objective

Explain how birth rates, death rates and net migration can vary between countries and the impact on economic development.

Key Concepts

  • Birth rate – number of live births per 1,000 people in a year.
  • Death rate – number of deaths per 1,000 people in a year.
  • Net migration – difference between immigrants and emigrants per 1,000 people in a year.
  • Population growth rate\$\text{Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Birth Rate} - \text{Death Rate} + \text{Net Migration}}{10}\%\$ (approximation).

Factors Influencing Birth Rates

  1. Level of economic development
  2. Access to education, especially for women
  3. Availability of contraception and family‑planning services
  4. Cultural and religious norms
  5. Urbanisation

Factors Influencing Death Rates

  1. Quality of healthcare system
  2. Nutrition and food security
  3. Living standards and housing
  4. Prevalence of disease and public‑health measures
  5. Environmental conditions

Factors Influencing Net Migration

  • Economic opportunities (jobs, wages)
  • Political stability and safety
  • Education and skill‑acquisition prospects
  • Family reunification policies
  • Environmental factors (e.g., climate change, natural disasters)

Typical Patterns in Different Types of Countries

Country TypeBirth Rate (per 1,000)Death Rate (per 1,000)Net Migration (per 1,000)Population Growth Trend
Low‑income, high fertility (e.g., Niger)≈ 44≈ 7≈ 0Rapid growth
Middle‑income, transitional (e.g., India)≈ 20≈ 7≈ ‑1Moderate growth, slowing
High‑income, low fertility (e.g., Japan)≈ 7≈ 10≈ 2Stagnant or declining
Small island developing state (e.g., Fiji)≈ 18≈ 6≈ 5Growth driven by migration

Implications for Economic Development

Variations in these demographic components affect the labour force, dependency ratios and demand for public services. The following points summarise the main impacts:

  • High birth rates increase the youth‑dependency ratio, creating pressure on education and health services but can provide a future labour surplus (demographic dividend) if jobs become available.
  • Low birth rates raise the elderly‑dependency ratio, increasing pension and healthcare costs and potentially leading to labour shortages.
  • High death rates reduce the effective labour force and can signal poor health infrastructure, limiting productivity.
  • Positive net migration can supplement a shrinking labour force, bring skills, and stimulate demand, but may also create integration challenges.
  • Negative net migration often reflects limited domestic opportunities and can exacerbate brain‑drain, slowing technological adoption.

Suggested Diagram

Suggested diagram: Population pyramid comparing a high‑fertility country (wide base) with a low‑fertility country (narrow base, larger elderly cohort).

Exam Practice Questions

  1. Define birth rate, death rate and net migration. Explain how each is measured.
  2. Using the table above, calculate the approximate annual population growth rate for Japan.
  3. Discuss two reasons why a country might experience a falling birth rate as it develops.
  4. Explain how high net migration can affect the dependency ratio in a receiving country.
  5. Evaluate the potential long‑term economic consequences for a country with a rapidly ageing population.

Key Summary Points

  • Birth, death and migration rates are expressed per 1,000 population per year.
  • Developed countries tend to have low birth rates and low death rates; developing countries often have high birth rates and higher death rates.
  • Net migration can either offset or accentuate natural population change.
  • Understanding these variations helps economists predict labour‑market trends and plan appropriate economic policies.