level of urbanisation

Characteristics of Countries at Different Levels of Development

Section 11.4 – Development Indicators

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11.4.1 Urbanisation (Core Indicator)

Urbanisation = proportion of a country’s total population living in areas classified as “urban”. It is a key marker of the shift from agriculture‑dominant to industrial‑ and service‑oriented economies.

Why Urbanisation Matters (AO1)

• Higher urbanisation usually signals greater productivity and higher per‑capita income.
• Urban areas concentrate labour, capital and technology – fostering innovation and economies of scale.
• Infrastructure (transport, utilities, communications) is typically more advanced in cities.
• Policy relevance: urban planning, housing, transport, environmental management and rural‑urban balance become central concerns.

Definition of “Urban Area” (AO1)

Definitions vary:

• United Nations: settlement with ≥ 50 000 inhabitants.
• National statistical offices: may use population density, administrative status or the presence of services (e.g., schools, hospitals).

These differences affect cross‑country comparisons of urbanisation rates.

Measuring Urbanisation (AO1)

Urbanisation Rate (%)

$$\text{Urbanisation Rate} = \frac{\text{Urban Population}}{\text{Total Population}}\times 100$$

Urbanisation Growth Rate (%)

$$\text{Urbanisation Growth Rate} = \frac{\Delta\text{Urban Population}}{\text{Urban Population}_{\text{previous year}}}\times 100$$

Worked Example – Quantitative Skills (AO2)

India (2023)

• Total population = 1 425 000 000
• Urban population = 485 000 000

Urbanisation Rate = 485 000 000 ÷ 1 425 000 000 × 100 ≈ 34 %

Interpretation: about one‑third of India’s population lives in urban areas – typical of a rapidly urbanising middle‑income country.

Typical Urbanisation Levels by Development Category (AO1)

Development Level (Syllabus 11.4)	Typical Urbanisation Rate (%)	Key Characteristics
Low‑income (Least‑Developed Countries)	30 – 45	Predominantly agrarian economies. Limited industrial base and weak urban infrastructure. High rural‑to‑urban migration, often resulting in informal settlements.
Middle‑income (Emerging Economies)	45 – 70	Rapid industrialisation and expanding service sector. Urban migration driven by employment opportunities. Infrastructure improving but uneven; growth of megacities.
High‑income (Developed Countries)	70 – 90+	Economies dominated by services and high‑tech industries. Well‑developed transport, housing and public services. Urbanisation rates stabilising; some de‑urbanisation in advanced economies.

Dynamic Nature of Urbanisation (AO2/AO3)

• Stabilisation: In many high‑income economies, urbanisation has plateaued because most people already live in cities.
• De‑urbanisation: Modest declines can occur due to suburbanisation, remote working, or ageing rural populations.
• Policy relevance: The stage of urbanisation dictates the mix of policies required – from basic infrastructure provision in low‑income nations to congestion‑charging and green‑city initiatives in high‑income ones.

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11.4.2 Population Growth & Structure

Key Concepts (AO1)

• Fertility rate – average number of children per woman.
• Crude death rate (CDR) – deaths per 1 000 population per year.
• Population growth rate (PGR) – net change per year.
• Dependency ratio – proportion of non‑working (0‑14 & 65+) to working‑age (15‑64) population.
• Migration: rural‑to‑urban, international, and internal flows.

Formulas (AO2)

$$\text{Population Growth Rate (PGR)} = \frac{(\text{CBR} - \text{CDR}) + \text{Net Migration Rate}}{10} \times 100$$

where CBR = crude birth rate (per 1 000), CDR = crude death rate (per 1 000).

$$\text{Dependency Ratio} = \frac{\text{Population}_{0-14} + \text{Population}_{65+}}{\text{Population}_{15-64}} \times 100$$

Worked Example – Growth Rate (AO2)

Niger (2022)

• CBR = 44 per 1 000
• CDR = 9 per 1 000
• Net migration = –0.5 per 1 000 (net emigration)

$$\text{PGR} = \frac{(44-9) - 0.5}{10}\times100 = \frac{34.5}{10}\times100 = 3.45\%$$

Interpretation: Niger’s population is expanding rapidly, creating a youthful age structure.

Population Pyramids (AO1/AO2)

Implications for Development (AO3)

• High fertility & rapid growth → pressure on education, health and housing.
• Youth bulge can become a demographic dividend if jobs and skills are provided.
• Ageing populations in high‑income states raise pension and health‑care costs.

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11.4.3 Income Distribution

Key Measures (AO1)

• Gini coefficient – 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality). Often expressed as a percentage.
• Lorenz curve – cumulative share of income (y‑axis) against cumulative share of population (x‑axis).
• Poverty lines – e.g., $1.90/day (World Bank), Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI).

Constructing a Lorenz Curve (AO2)

1. Rank households from poorest to richest.
2. Calculate cumulative % of population and cumulative % of total income.
3. Plot the points and join them; the 45° line represents perfect equality.

Worked Example – Gini Calculation (AO2)

Four income groups in a low‑income country:

Group	Population %	Income %
Poorest 25 %	25	5
Next 25 %	25	15
Next 25 %	25	30
Richest 25 %	25	50

Cumulative population: 25, 50, 75, 100 %.
Cumulative income: 5, 20, 50, 100 %.

Area between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve ≈ 0.35. Gini = 2 × 0.35 = 0.70 (or 70 %).

Interpretation: high inequality, typical of many low‑income economies.

Limitations of the Gini (AO3)

• Ignores where in the distribution inequality occurs (e.g., poor vs. middle‑class).
• Sensitive to data quality and household definitions.
• Same Gini can mask very different poverty levels.

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11.4.4 Economic Structure

Sectoral Employment & Value‑Added (AO1)

Development Level	Typical % of Employment	Typical % of GDP (Value‑Added)	Key Industries
Low‑income (LDCs)
Agriculture	≈ 70 %	≈ 15 %	Subsistence farming, cash crops, livestock.
Manufacturing	≈ 15 %	≈ 20 %	Basic processing of primary products.
Services	≈ 15 %	≈ 65 %	Informal trade, public administration.
Middle‑income (Emerging)
Agriculture	≈ 30 %	≈ 10 %	Commercial farming, agro‑industry.
Manufacturing	≈ 30 %	≈ 30 %	Textiles, electronics, automotive assembly.
Services	≈ 40 %	≈ 60 %	Finance, tourism, ICT.
High‑income (Developed)
Agriculture	≈ 2 %	≈ 2 %	Highly mechanised, export‑oriented.
Manufacturing	≈ 15 %	≈ 20 %	High‑tech, aerospace, pharmaceuticals.
Services	≈ 83 %	≈ 78 %	Finance, professional services, digital economy.

Export Composition (AO1)

• Low‑income: primary commodities (e.g., cocoa, oil, minerals).
• Middle‑income: manufactured goods and semi‑processed commodities (e.g., automobiles, textiles).
• High‑income: sophisticated services and high‑value‑added products (e.g., software, aircraft, financial services).

Diagrammatic Work (AO2)

Policy Implications (AO3)

• Low‑income: need to diversify away from primary sector, invest in agro‑processing and basic infrastructure.
• Middle‑income: upgrade manufacturing technology, improve skill levels, manage urban growth.
• High‑income: focus on innovation, services, sustainability and managing post‑industrial challenges.

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Section 11.5 – Relationship Between Countries at Different Levels of Development

11.5.1 International Aid (ODA)

• Definition: Official Development Assistance – financial or technical resources provided by governments or multilateral agencies to promote economic development and welfare.
• Types: Project aid (e.g., water, sanitation), budget support, technical assistance, debt relief.
• Effectiveness (AO3):
  • Advantages – can jump‑start urban infrastructure, improve health and education, reduce poverty.
  • Disadvantages – risk of aid dependence, misallocation, “donor‑driven” projects that ignore local priorities.
  • Overall judgement – most successful when coordinated with domestic policies, involves capacity‑building and clear monitoring.

11.5.2 Multinational Companies (MNCs)

• Location decisions: access to large urban labour markets, lower transport costs, proximity to consumers, and favourable investment climates.
• Spill‑over effects: technology transfer, skill development, export promotion, but also potential crowding‑out of domestic firms.
• Policy relevance (AO3): need for investment‑friendly regulations, tax incentives, and labour standards to maximise benefits and limit exploitation.

11.5.3 External Debt

• Definition: total amount a country owes to non‑resident lenders (governments, commercial banks, private investors).
• Debt‑service ratio: annual debt‑service payments ÷ export earnings (or GDP). Ratios > 30 % signal vulnerability.
• Impact on urban development (AO3):
  • High debt limits fiscal space for infrastructure investment.
  • Debt relief or restructuring can free resources for city‑level projects.
  • Excessive borrowing may lead to austerity measures that undermine social services.

11.5.4 Globalisation

• Integration into global value chains encourages concentration of manufacturing, logistics and finance in urban centres.
• Exports and foreign exchange earnings rise, supporting urban public‑service provision.
• Risks include exposure to external shocks (e.g., demand downturns) and heightened competition for urban jobs.

Case‑Study Box (AO3)

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Policy Evaluation Summary (AO3)

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Diagrammatic Work (AO2)

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Exam‑Style Practice (AO2/AO3)

Multiple‑Choice Question

Which of the following statements best explains why urbanisation rates tend to be lower in low‑income countries?

1. High levels of foreign direct investment in the manufacturing sector.
2. Predominantly agrarian economies with limited industrial jobs.
3. Extensive public‑transport networks that encourage commuting.
4. Large proportion of the population employed in high‑tech services.

Answer: B

Data‑Response / Essay Prompt

Evaluate the effectiveness of urban‑planning policies in improving living standards in a middle‑income country of your choice. In your answer, consider the role of infrastructure, housing, and environmental management, and discuss any trade‑offs involved.

Marking Guidance (Brief)

• Identify relevant policies and explain intended outcomes (AO1).
• Analyse how each policy influences productivity, income distribution and quality of life (AO2).
• Weigh advantages against disadvantages, use real‑world examples, and reach a balanced judgement (AO3).

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Key Take‑aways (AO1)

• Urbanisation is both a cause and a consequence of economic development.
• Higher urbanisation rates are associated with industrialisation, higher incomes and more complex economic structures, but also with challenges such as housing shortages and environmental pressure.
• Policy responses must be tailored to the stage of development, integrating infrastructure, human‑capital, environmental and rural‑development considerations.
• Understanding urbanisation in the wider context of population dynamics, income distribution, economic structure and international linkages is essential for answering A‑Level questions at AO1‑AO3.