causes of the cycle

Cambridge International AS & A Level Economics (9708) – Complete Revision Notes

How to Use These Notes

  • Read each section in the order of the syllabus (Topics 1‑11) to build a logical foundation.
  • Key definitions are highlighted in bold. Memorise them for AO1.
  • Diagrams are marked with Figure X. Practice drawing them free‑hand and label all curves, axes and shifts.
  • Exam‑style questions at the end of each major topic model AO2 (analysis) and AO3 (evaluation). Use the suggested command‑word guide.
  • Real‑world examples are provided in green. Update with the latest data (e.g., 2023‑2024) for data‑response practice.
  • Each topic ends with a Concept‑Check box – test your understanding of the key idea before moving on.

Topic 1 – Scarcity, Choice & Opportunity Cost

Key Definitions

  • Scarcity: The fundamental economic problem that resources are limited while human wants are unlimited.
  • Choice: Selecting one option at the expense of another.
  • Opportunity Cost: The value of the next best alternative foregone when a decision is made.
  • Efficiency: Allocation of resources such that no one can be made better off without making someone else worse off (Pareto optimal).

Core Concepts

  • Economic agents (households, firms, government) must allocate scarce resources efficiently.
  • Production Possibility Curve (PPC) illustrates trade‑offs and opportunity costs.
    • Points on the curve = efficient production.
    • Points inside = inefficiency (unemployment, under‑utilised resources).
    • Points outside = unattainable with current resources/technology.
Figure 1 – Production Possibility Curve (PPC) showing efficient points, inefficiency and unattainable output.

Example

Country X can produce either 100 million tons of wheat or 200 million units of textiles. If it chooses 60 million tons of wheat, the opportunity cost is the 120 million units of textiles forgone.

Concept‑Check

What does a movement from a point on the PPC to a point inside the curve indicate about a country’s use of resources?


Topic 2 – Demand and Supply (Micro‑economics)

Key Definitions

  • Demand: The quantity of a good or service that consumers are willing and able to buy at each price, ceteris paribus.
  • Supply: The quantity that producers are willing and able to sell at each price, ceteris paribus.
  • Market Equilibrium: The point where quantity demanded equals quantity supplied.

Determinants & Shifts

Demand DeterminantsTypical Effect on Demand Curve
Consumer income (normal vs inferior goods)↑ income → rightward shift for normal goods; leftward for inferior goods
Prices of related goods (substitutes & complements)↑ price of substitute → rightward shift; ↑ price of complement → leftward shift
Consumer preferences, expectations, populationPositive change → rightward shift
Government policy (taxes, subsidies)Tax on good → leftward shift; subsidy → rightward shift
Supply DeterminantsTypical Effect on Supply Curve
Input prices (wages, raw materials)↑ input cost → leftward shift
TechnologyImprovement → rightward shift
Number of firms, taxes/subsidies, expectationsPositive change → rightward shift
Regulatory environment (e.g., licences)More stringent regulation → leftward shift
Figure 2 – Rightward shift of demand (ΔD) leads to a higher equilibrium price (P₂) and quantity (Q₂).

Analysis Prompt (AO2)

Explain how a specific tax on sugary drinks would affect the market for soft drinks, using a diagram to show the shift in supply and the resulting dead‑weight loss.

Real‑World Example

In 2023 the UK saw a surge in electric‑vehicle (EV) demand after the government announced a £5,000 plug‑in grant. The demand curve for EVs shifted rightwards, raising both equilibrium price and quantity.

Concept‑Check

Why does a fall in the price of a substitute cause the demand curve for the original good to shift left?


Topic 3 – Elasticities

Key Definitions & Formulas

  • Price Elasticity of Demand (PED): %ΔQd / %ΔP.
    • Elastic (|PED| > 1), unit‑elastic (|PED| = 1), inelastic (|PED| < 1).
  • Price Elasticity of Supply (PES): %ΔQs / %ΔP.
  • Income Elasticity of Demand (YED): %ΔQd / %ΔY.
    • Normal good (YED > 0), luxury (YED > 1), inferior (YED < 0).
  • Cross‑price Elasticity of Demand (XED): %ΔQd₁ / %ΔP₂.
    • Substitutes (XED > 0), complements (XED < 0).

Why Elasticities Matter (AO2)

  • Pricing decisions – firms with elastic demand must be careful raising prices.
  • Tax incidence – burden falls more on the side of the market with inelastic response.
  • Policy effectiveness – e.g., a tax on cigarettes (inelastic demand) raises revenue with little reduction in consumption.
  • Revenue‑maximising price – occurs where marginal revenue = 0, which depends on PED.

Evaluation Points (AO3)

  • Elasticities vary over time, between markets and along a demand curve.
  • Short‑run vs long‑run elasticity: demand is usually more elastic in the long run.
  • Data limitations: calculating accurate elasticities requires reliable price‑quantity data.

Exam‑style Question (AO3)

“Explain how the price elasticity of demand for petrol influences the likely impact of a fuel tax on government revenue and consumer behaviour. Use appropriate diagrams.”

Concept‑Check

What does a PED of –0.4 imply about the likely consumer response to a 10 % price increase?


Topic 4 – Government Intervention in Markets (Micro‑policy)

Key Instruments

  • Price controls: Floors (minimum price) and ceilings (maximum price).
  • Taxes: Specific (per unit) and ad valorem (percentage). Shift supply upward; part of the burden is passed to consumers.
  • Subsidies: Direct payments to producers or consumers; shift supply or demand rightwards.
  • Regulation: Quality standards, safety requirements, licensing.
  • Public provision: Government supplies goods/services directly (e.g., NHS).

Diagrammatic Requirements

  • Figure 3 – Price ceiling below equilibrium creates a shortage.
  • Figure 4 – Specific tax on producers shifts supply left, generating a dead‑weight loss.
  • Figure 5 – Subsidy to producers shifts supply right, increasing consumer surplus but costing the exchequer.

Analysis Prompt (AO2)

Analyse the likely short‑run and long‑run effects of a rent‑control ceiling on a city’s private‑rental market.

Evaluation Points (AO3)

  • Efficiency vs equity trade‑off.
  • Unintended consequences (black markets, reduced maintenance, misallocation).
  • Administrative costs and enforceability.
  • Distributional impact on renters versus landlords.

Real‑World Example

In 2022 the UK introduced a £2.50 per litre tax on sugary drinks. The tax is specific, shifts the supply curve of sugary drinks leftwards, raises the price, and aims to reduce consumption while generating revenue for NHS health programmes.

Concept‑Check

Why might a government prefer a tax over a direct ban when dealing with a negative externality?


Topic 5 – Market Failure & Government Failure

Types of Market Failure

  • Public goods: Non‑rivalrous & non‑excludable (e.g., street lighting). Result: free‑rider problem.
  • Externalities: Positive (education) or negative (pollution). Unpriced social costs/benefits.
  • Information asymmetry: One party has more/better information (e.g., used‑car market).
  • Monopoly power: Single seller restricts output, raises price.
  • Merit & demerit goods: Goods judged socially desirable or undesirable irrespective of private preferences.

Government Responses

  • Provision of public goods financed by taxation.
  • Pigouvian taxes (negative externalities) or subsidies (positive externalities).
  • Regulation and standards to correct information problems.
  • Competition policy (anti‑trust legislation).
  • Direct provision or vouchers for merit goods.

Diagram – Negative Externality

Figure 6 – Social marginal cost (MSC) exceeds private marginal cost (MPC). A tax equal to the external cost aligns MPC with MSC.

Evaluation (AO3)

  • Cost‑benefit analysis of intervention (administrative cost vs welfare gain).
  • Potential for government failure (regulatory capture, misallocation, rent‑seeking).
  • Time lags and uncertainty in measuring external costs.

Concept‑Check

How does the presence of a positive externality affect the socially optimal level of output compared with the market equilibrium?


Topic 6 – Labour Markets

Key Concepts

  • Labour demand: Derived from the marginal product of labour (MPL). Firms hire up to the point where MPL = real wage.
  • Labour supply: Influenced by population, wages, preferences for leisure, and immigration.
  • Wage determination: Intersection of labour demand and supply curves.
  • Minimum wage: Price floor; can cause unemployment if set above equilibrium.
  • Trade unions & collective bargaining: Can shift the labour‑supply curve leftwards (higher wages for a given employment level).
  • Unemployment types: Frictional, structural, cyclical, classical.

Diagram – Minimum Wage

Figure 7 – Minimum wage set above equilibrium creates a surplus of labour (unemployment).

Analysis Prompt (AO2)

Analyse the likely impact of a 10 % increase in the National Living Wage on employment, price levels and fiscal revenue in the short run.

Real‑World Illustration

In 2023 the UK increased the National Living Wage to £10.42 per hour. Studies by the Institute for Fiscal Studies showed a modest rise in employment costs for low‑skill workers but limited evidence of large job losses, highlighting the importance of labour‑market flexibility.

Concept‑Check

What distinguishes cyclical unemployment from structural unemployment?


Topic 7 – Firms, Market Structures & Behaviour (Micro‑theory)

Market Structures

StructureKey CharacteristicsTypical Outcome (Efficiency)
Perfect competitionMany small firms, homogeneous product, free entry/exitAllocative & productive efficiency (P = MC)
Monopolistic competitionMany firms, differentiated products, low barriersExcess capacity; P > MC
OligopolyFew large firms, inter‑dependent, possible collusionPotential price rigidity; strategic behaviour
MonopolySingle seller, high barriers, price makerAllocative inefficiency (P > MC); dead‑weight loss

Behavioural Tools

  • Price discrimination, product bundling, advertising, R&D.
  • Game theory (e.g., Prisoner’s Dilemma) for oligopolistic interaction.
  • Strategic entry barriers (patents, control of essential facilities).

Diagram – Monopoly Pricing

Figure 8 – Monopoly MR intersects MC at Q₁; price set on demand curve at P₁ > MC, creating dead‑weight loss.

Evaluation (AO3)

  • Monopolies may achieve economies of scale and fund innovation, offsetting some inefficiency.
  • Regulatory approaches (price caps, public ownership) have trade‑offs between efficiency and equity.

Concept‑Check

How does product differentiation affect the price‑elasticity of demand faced by a firm in monopolistic competition?


Topic 8 – Macroeconomic Objectives & Indicators

Key Objectives (Cambridge Specification)

  • Economic growth (real GDP growth)
  • Low unemployment
  • Price stability (low inflation)
  • External balance (current‑account equilibrium)
  • Equitable income distribution
  • Environmental sustainability (increasingly part of the A‑Level syllabus)

Major Indicators

IndicatorWhat It MeasuresTypical Source
Real GDPAggregate output adjusted for inflationNational accounts
Unemployment ratePercentage of labour force without work but seeking employmentLabour Force Survey
Consumer Price Index (CPI)Average price change of a basket of consumer goodsOffice for National Statistics (ONS)
Balance of Payments (BoP)All transactions between residents and the rest of the worldInternational Monetary Fund (IMF)
Gini coefficientDegree of income inequality (0 = perfect equality, 1 = perfect inequality)World Bank
Ecological FootprintHuman demand on natural resourcesGlobal Footprint Network

Concept‑Check

Why might a country experience rising real GDP while its Gini coefficient also rises?


Topic 9 – Economic Growth & Development (Including Sustainability)

Key Definitions

  • Economic Growth: Sustained increase in real GDP over time.
  • Economic Development: Qualitative improvement in living standards, health, education and environmental quality.
  • Sustainable Development: Development that meets present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs.

Drivers of the Growth Cycle

  1. Demand‑pull factors – consumer confidence, fiscal stimulus, export growth.
  2. Cost‑push factors – input‑price shocks (e.g., oil), supply‑side disruptions.
  3. Technological progress & productivity – total factor productivity (TFP) rise, innovation.
  4. Investment dynamics – capital formation, interest‑rate sensitivity, tax incentives.
  5. Policy & institutional environment – monetary & fiscal stance, regulatory quality.
  6. External shocks – global financial crises, pandemics, terms‑of‑trade swings.

Solow Growth Model (Key Equation)

Y = A·F(K, L)

  • Y = real output
  • A = total factor productivity (technology, efficiency)
  • K = capital stock
  • L = labour input

Interaction with Sustainability

Growth DriverTypical Effect on the CycleSustainability Implications
Demand‑pull (e.g., fiscal stimulus)Right‑shift of AD → higher output, possible inflationMay increase resource use & carbon emissions unless green spending is targeted.
Technological progressHigher A → upward shift of LRAS, higher potential outputCan be eco‑efficient (green tech) or resource‑intensive (digital infrastructure).
Investment in renewable energyBoosts K while reducing carbon intensitySupports long‑run sustainable growth.
Oil price shockCost‑push left‑shift of SRAS → lower output, higher pricesHighlights vulnerability of fossil‑fuel dependence.

Evaluation (AO3)

  • Trade‑off between short‑run growth and long‑run environmental degradation.
  • Measurement challenges: GDP does not capture environmental depletion or wellbeing.
  • Policy mix (green fiscal stimulus, carbon pricing) can align growth with sustainability.

Concept‑Check

How does an increase in total factor productivity affect the long‑run aggregate supply curve?


Topic 10 – Macroeconomic Policy & the Business Cycle

Fiscal Policy

  • Expansionary fiscal policy: Increase in government spending (G) and/or decrease in taxes (T). Shifts AD rightwards.
  • Contractionary fiscal policy: Decrease in G and/or increase in T. Shifts AD leftwards.
  • Multiplier effect: k = 1 / (1‑MPC) (simple Keynesian). The higher the marginal propensity to consume, the larger the impact on equilibrium output.
  • Automatic stabilisers (e.g., progressive income tax, unemployment benefits) work without explicit policy change.

Monetary Policy (Cambridge Specification)

  • Tools: Open‑market operations, policy interest rate, reserve requirements, quantitative easing.
  • Expansionary monetary policy: lower interest rates → investment (I) rises, AD shifts right.
  • Contractionary monetary policy: higher rates → I falls, AD shifts left.
  • Liquidity trap: when interest rates are near zero, further cuts have little effect on investment.

Supply‑Side (Structural) Policy

  • Improving labour market flexibility (training, deregulation).
  • Enhancing competition (anti‑trust law, privatisation).
  • Investing in infrastructure and R&D to raise LRAS.
  • Environmental regulation to internalise externalities.

AD/AS Framework – Business‑Cycle Analysis

Figure 9 – Expansionary fiscal or monetary shock shifts AD right (from AD₁ to AD₂). Short‑run equilibrium moves from Y₁ to Y₂ with higher price level (P₂). In the long run, LRAS may shift right if the shock is supply‑side.

Phillips Curve (Short‑Run Trade‑off)

Figure 10 – Inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation in the short run; vertical long‑run Phillips curve at the natural rate of unemployment.

Analysis Prompt (AO2)

Analyse how a 5 % increase in government spending financed by borrowing would affect output, price level and the budget deficit in the short run and the long run.

Evaluation (AO3)

  • Fiscal multipliers are lower when the economy is near full employment.
  • Higher public debt may raise future tax expectations, crowding‑out private investment (Ricardian equivalence).
  • Monetary policy may offset fiscal expansion (policy mix).
  • Time lags: implementation lag, impact lag, and effect lag can reduce effectiveness.

Concept‑Check

Why does the long‑run Phillips curve become vertical, and what does this imply for the inflation‑unemployment trade‑off?


Topic 11 – International Trade, Balance of Payments & Development

Reasons for Trade

  • Comparative advantage: Countries specialise in goods with lower opportunity cost.
  • Economies of scale: Larger markets reduce average costs.
  • Variety & consumer choice: Access to a wider range of goods.
  • Dynamic gains: Technology transfer, competition‑driven innovation.

Protectionism & Trade Policy Instruments

  • Tariffs (specific & ad valorem) – raise import prices, shift import demand left.
  • Quotas – limit quantity, create rents for licence holders.
  • Import licences, subsidies to domestic producers, export taxes.
  • Non‑tariff barriers (standards, customs procedures).

Diagram – Effect of a Tariff

Figure 11 – World price (Pw) vs domestic price with a tariff (Pw + t). Consumer surplus falls, government revenue equals tariff × quantity imported.

Balance of Payments (BoP) Structure

AccountComponentsTypical Surplus/Deficit Indicator
Current AccountTrade balance, services, primary income, secondary incomeSurplus = net export earnings > imports
Capital AccountTransfers of non‑produced, non‑financial assetsUsually small
Financial AccountDirect investment, portfolio investment, other investment, reserve assetsDeficit often financed by capital inflows

Exchange‑Rate Regimes

  • Fixed (pegged) exchange rate: Central bank intervenes to maintain a set rate.
  • Floating (flexible) exchange rate: Rate determined by market forces.
  • Managed float – occasional intervention to smooth volatility.

Impact of Exchange‑Rate Movements

  • Depreciation makes exports cheaper, imports more expensive → right‑shift of export demand, left‑shift of import demand.
  • Appreciation has the opposite effect, potentially worsening the current‑account balance.

Development Indicators

IndicatorWhat It MeasuresTypical Source
Human Development Index (HDI)Composite of life expectancy, education, GNI per capitaUNDP
Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)Deprivations in health, education, living standardsOPHI
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflowsCapital investment by foreign firmsUNCTAD
Trade openness(Exports + Imports) / GDPWorld Bank

Globalisation – Benefits & Risks (AO3)

  • Benefits: higher growth, technology diffusion, consumer choice.
  • Risks: income inequality, loss of domestic industries, environmental pressures.
  • Policy responses: trade‑adjustment assistance, environmental standards, fair‑trade agreements.

Analysis Prompt (AO2)

Using the AD/AS model, analyse the short‑run macro‑economic effects of a 20 % devaluation of the pound sterling on a small open economy that is a net exporter of manufactured goods.

Evaluation (AO3)

  • Short‑run boost to export‑led growth vs possible inflationary pressure from higher import prices.
  • Long‑run sustainability depends on the elasticity of export demand and the economy’s capacity to increase production.
  • Exchange‑rate volatility can deter foreign investment.
  • Policy coordination (monetary, fiscal, trade) is crucial to avoid “policy trilemma” conflicts.

Concept‑Check

Why might a developing country choose to maintain a fixed exchange rate despite the risk of speculative attacks?


Quick Revision – Key Formulas & Diagrams

  • Price Elasticity of Demand (PED) = %ΔQd / %ΔP
  • Multiplier (k) = 1 / (1 − MPC)
  • Solow Production Function: Y = A·F(K, L)
  • Phillips Curve (short‑run): π = πe − β(u − u*)

Ensure you can draw and label the following diagrams from memory:

  1. Production Possibility Curve (Figure 1)
  2. Demand & Supply with shifts (Figure 2)
  3. Price ceiling & floor (Figures 3 & 4)
  4. Tax and subsidy effects (Figures 4 & 5)
  5. Negative externality (Figure 6)
  6. Minimum wage (Figure 7)
  7. Monopoly pricing (Figure 8)
  8. AD/AS – fiscal/monetary shock (Figure 9)
  9. Phillips curve (Figure 10)
  10. Tariff impact on import market (Figure 11)

Final Tips for the Exam

  • Always start answers with a concise definition (AO1), then move to analysis (AO2) and finish with balanced evaluation (AO3).
  • Use real‑world data where possible – recent figures add credibility.
  • Link micro‑ and macro‑concepts where relevant (e.g., how a tax on a specific good influences aggregate supply).
  • Practice past‑paper questions under timed conditions to improve recall of diagrams and terminology.

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