Tropical cyclone hazards: distribution, processes, impacts, management

Hazardous Environments – Natural Hazard Hazards (Cambridge AS & A Level Geography 9696)

Learning Objective

Develop a comprehensive understanding of the distribution, physical processes, impacts and management of the three major natural hazards covered in the syllabus – tropical cyclones, earthquakes and volcanoes – and be able to evaluate management strategies using contrasting country examples.


1. Tropical Cyclone Hazards

1.1 Distribution

Tropical cyclones (TCs) form over warm oceanic waters (≥ 26.5 °C) between about 5° S and 30° N (or S). Their global pattern is controlled by sea‑surface temperature, the Coriolis effect and prevailing atmospheric circulation.

Ocean Basin Regional Name Peak Season (NH) Peak Season (SH) Average Annual Frequency
North Atlantic Hurricanes June – Nov (peak Sep) ≈ 12 named storms
Eastern Pacific Hurricanes May – Nov (peak Aug) ≈ 15 named storms
Western Pacific Typhoons May – Oct (peak Aug) ≈ 26 named storms
North Indian Ocean Cyclones Apr – Dec (peak Oct) ≈ 5 named storms
South Indian Ocean Cyclones Nov – Apr (peak Feb) ≈ 9 named storms
Southwest Pacific Cyclones Nov – Apr (peak Feb) ≈ 10 named storms

1.2 Physical Processes of Formation

  1. Pre‑existing disturbance – tropical wave, monsoon trough or easterly wave.
  2. Warm sea‑surface temperature (SST) – > 26.5 °C to a depth of ≥ 50 m.
  3. Low vertical wind shear – < 10 m s⁻¹ between the surface and the upper troposphere.
  4. Moist mid‑troposphere – relative humidity > 70 %.
  5. Coriolis force – sufficient to initiate cyclonic rotation; absent within ~5° of the equator.

The Coriolis parameter is calculated as:

$$f = 2\Omega \sin\phi$$

where Ω = 7.2921 × 10⁻⁵ rad s⁻¹ (Earth’s angular velocity) and φ is latitude.

1.2.1 Intensification Mechanism

Latent heat released during condensation lowers central pressure, steepening the pressure‑gradient force (PGF). The gradient‑wind balance is expressed by:

$$\frac{V^{2}}{r}+fV=\frac{1}{\rho}\frac{\partial p}{\partial r}$$

where V = tangential wind speed, r = radius from the centre, f = Coriolis parameter, ρ = air density and ∂p/∂r = radial pressure gradient.

1.2.2 Structure of a Mature Cyclone
  • Eye – calm, low‑pressure centre (30–50 km diameter).
  • Eyewall – ring of intense convection; contains the strongest winds and heaviest rain.
  • Rainbands – spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms extending outward.

1.3 Impacts

Impacts are categorised as primary (direct) and secondary (indirect) hazards.

Primary Hazards
  • Wind damage – structural failure, uprooted trees, power outages.
  • Storm surge – coastal inundation caused by on‑shore wind stress and low pressure; extreme surges > 5 m.
  • Heavy rainfall – flash flooding, landslides, especially on steep terrain.
Secondary Hazards
  • Water‑borne disease outbreaks (contaminated water supplies).
  • Food insecurity (crop loss, livestock mortality).
  • Economic disruption (loss of tourism, damage to transport & utilities).
Case Study Snapshots
  • Hurricane Katrina (USA, 2005) – gusts up to 280 km h⁻¹, 5.5 m storm surge in New Orleans, > 1 500 deaths, US$125 billion damage.
  • Cyclone Nargis (Bangladesh, 2008) – 5.1 m surge, > 84 000 deaths, > 10 million people affected; illustrates vulnerability of low‑income, deltaic coastlines.
  • Typhoon Haiyan (Philippines, 2013) – 315 km h⁻¹ winds, 6 m surge, > 6 300 deaths; highlights the role of inadequate evacuation planning.

1.4 Management

1.4.1 Forecasting & Early Warning
  • Satellite imagery (visible, IR, microwave) to monitor convection, eye formation and sea‑surface temperature.
  • Numerical weather prediction models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) for track and intensity forecasts.
  • Probabilistic “cone of uncertainty” and colour‑coded public warnings (e.g., the UK Met Office system).
1.4.2 Mitigation Measures
  1. Structural
    • Elevated houses and flood‑proofing in low‑lying zones.
    • Wind‑resistant design – reinforced roofs, shutters, roof‑tie‑downs.
    • Coastal defences – seawalls, breakwaters, mangrove restoration and dune stabilisation.
  2. Non‑structural
    • Zoning & land‑use planning to restrict development in high‑risk coastal strips.
    • Community education on evacuation routes, shelter locations and kit preparation.
    • Insurance schemes, catastrophe bonds and disaster‑risk financing.
1.4.3 Emergency Response
  • Pre‑positioning of relief supplies, medical teams and portable shelters.
  • Timely evacuation orders based on surge and wind‑zone forecasts.
  • Coordinated search‑and‑rescue, medical assistance and temporary accommodation.
1.4.4 Long‑Term Adaptation
  • Integrating sea‑level rise projections into coastal master plans.
  • Promoting flood‑tolerant crops and raised‑bed agriculture in vulnerable floodplains.
  • Community‑based DRR programmes that build local capacity for risk assessment and response.
  • Periodic review of building codes to reflect evolving climate‑change data.

2. Earthquake Hazards

2.1 Distribution & Tectonic Setting

  • Concentrated along plate boundaries:
    • Subduction zones – e.g., Pacific “Ring of Fire”, Chile, Japan.
    • Transform faults – e.g., San Andreas (USA), Alpine fault (NZ).
    • Continental collision zones – e.g., Himalayas, Zagros.
  • Intraplate earthquakes occur away from boundaries but are less frequent and generally lower magnitude (e.g., New Madrid, USA).

2.2 Seismic Waves

Wave Type Propagation Key Characteristics Relevance to Damage
P‑waves (Primary) Compressional, travel fastest First to arrive; felt as a gentle “tap”. Used for early‑warning systems.
S‑waves (Secondary) Shear, slower than P‑waves Cause most of the shaking felt. Major contributor to structural damage.
Surface waves (Rayleigh & Love) Travel along the Earth’s surface Long‑duration, high amplitude. Responsible for severe ground motion and landslides.

2.3 Magnitude & Intensity Scales

Scale What It Measures Typical Use in the Syllabus
Richter (ML) Amplitude of seismic waves on a Wood‑Anderson seismograph Historical, moderate‑size events (M < 7).
Moment Magnitude (Mw) Seismic moment (fault area × slip × rigidity) Modern, all‑size events; replaces ML for M > 7.
Modified Mercalli (MMI) Observed effects on people, structures and the natural environment Assessing damage, informing emergency response.

2.4 Primary Impacts

  • Ground shaking – building collapse, infrastructure damage.
  • Surface rupture – offset of the ground along the fault trace.
  • Liquefaction – loss of strength in saturated, unconsolidated sediments, leading to ground failure and tilting of structures.

2.5 Secondary Impacts

  • Triggered landslides and rockfalls in steep terrain.
  • Generation of tsunamis when large seafloor displacement occurs (e.g., subduction events).
  • Aftershocks that prolong damage and hinder rescue operations.
  • Disruption of water, sanitation and health services → increased disease risk.

2.6 Hazard Mapping & Risk Identification

  • GIS‑based seismic‑hazard maps showing expected ground‑motion (PGA) for different return periods.
  • Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) – combines earthquake occurrence rates with ground‑motion prediction equations.
  • Risk matrices that combine hazard intensity with exposure (population, building stock) and vulnerability (building type, socioeconomic status).

2.7 Case Study Snapshots

  • Great East Japan Earthquake (2011, Mw 9.0) – > 19 000 deaths, massive tsunami, Fukushima nuclear disaster; illustrates high‑income response capacity and complex secondary hazards.
  • Gorkha Earthquake, Nepal (2015, Mw 7.8) – > 9 000 deaths, widespread collapse of unreinforced masonry in a low‑income, mountainous setting; highlights vulnerability and limited emergency capacity.
  • Haiti Earthquake (2010, Mw 7.0) – > 220 000 deaths, severe building‑stock failure, prolonged humanitarian crisis; demonstrates the importance of building‑code enforcement and disaster‑risk financing.

2.8 Management of Earthquake Risk

2.8.1 Prediction & Early Warning
  • Short‑term warning systems (e.g., Japan’s J‑Alert, Mexico’s SASMEX) detect P‑waves and issue seconds‑long alerts before damaging S‑waves arrive.
  • Long‑term probabilistic assessments (PSHA) inform land‑use planning, building codes and insurance premiums.
2.8.2 Mitigation Measures
  1. Structural
    • Seismic‑resistant design – base isolation, ductile steel frames, reinforced concrete shear walls.
    • Retrofitting of vulnerable existing buildings (e.g., “soft‑storey” houses, unreinforced masonry).
    • Critical‑infrastructure upgrades (bridges, hospitals, schools).
  2. Non‑structural
    • Strict building‑code enforcement and regular inspections.
    • Zoning to avoid construction on active fault traces, liquefaction‑prone soils and steep landslide slopes.
    • Public education – “Drop, Cover, Hold‑on” drills, school programmes, community‑based risk workshops.
    • Earthquake insurance schemes and catastrophe‑bond markets.
2.8.3 Emergency Response
  • Rapid deployment of Urban Search & Rescue (USAR) teams, medical triage centres and temporary shelters.
  • Provision of clean water, sanitation kits and disease‑surveillance to prevent secondary health crises.
  • Coordination of international humanitarian assistance through UN OCHA and the IFRC.
2.8.4 Evaluation of Management Strategies
  • Cost‑benefit analysis of retrofitting programmes (e.g., Japan’s “Seismic Retrofit Subsidy” reduced expected losses by > 70 %).
  • Success indicators: reduced casualty rates, faster restoration of essential services, measurable increase in community resilience (post‑event surveys).
  • Limitations: funding constraints in low‑income countries, enforcement gaps, and the inherent uncertainty of earthquake prediction.

3. Volcanic Hazards

3.1 Types of Volcanoes & Eruption Styles

Volcano Type Typical Magma Composition Eruption Style Representative Example
Shield Low‑silica, basaltic Effusive – fluid lava flows Mauna Loa (Hawaii)
Stratovolcano (Composite) Intermediate to high silica (andesitic–rhyolitic) Explosive – ash columns, pyroclastic flows Mount Pinatubo (Philippines)
Caldera Varied; often high‑silica Catastrophic collapse after massive eruption Yellowstone (USA)
Cinder cone Basaltic to andesitic Short‑lived Strombolian eruptions Parícutin (Mexico)

3.2 Physical Processes of Eruption

  1. Magma generation – partial melting in the mantle (mid‑ocean ridges, hotspots) or crust (subduction zones).
  2. Magma ascent – buoyancy, fracture propagation, and volatile exsolution (H₂O, CO₂) reduce density.
  3. Degassing & explosive fragmentation – rapid expansion of gases creates high‑pressure blasts, forming ash columns and pyroclastic density currents.
  4. Vent opening & conduit development – determines whether an eruption is effusive (lava flows) or explosive (ash, PDCs).

3.3 Primary Hazards

  • Lava flows – destroy infrastructure, ignite fires, create new land.
  • Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) – fast, hot mixtures of gas and ash; extremely lethal and can travel > 20 km.
  • Volcanic ash fall – roof collapse, respiratory problems, disruption of air traffic, contamination of water supplies.
  • Volcanic gases – SO₂, CO₂, H₂S; cause acid rain, crop damage and asphyxiation in low‑lying areas.

3.4 Secondary Hazards

  • Lahars (volcanic mudflows) triggered by heavy rain mixing with loose ash and debris.
  • Sector collapse leading to tsunamis (e.g., Anak Krakatau 2018).
  • Long‑term climate impacts from sulphur aerosols (e.g., “Year Without a Summer” 1816 after Tambora).
  • Agricultural loss and food insecurity from ash‑covered fields.

3.5 Monitoring, Early Warning & Hazard Mapping

  • Seismic monitoring – increase in volcano‑tectonic earthquakes signals magma movement.
  • Ground deformation – GPS, InSAR and tiltmeters detect swelling of the edifice.
  • Gas emissions – SO₂ flux measured by spectrometers; sudden spikes can precede eruption.
  • Thermal imaging – satellite or drone‑borne IR detects hot spots.
  • Hazard maps combine zones of lava flow, ash fall, PDCs and lahars; colour‑coded for public use (e.g., USGS Volcano Hazard Maps).

3.6 Case Study Snapshots

  • Mount Pinatubo (Philippines, 1991) – VEI 6 eruption, > 800 km³ tephra, global temperature drop of ~0.5 °C; effective evacuation saved > 70 % of the population.
  • Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland, 2010) – Ash plume disrupted European air traffic for 6 weeks; highlighted the economic impact of volcanic ash on aviation.
  • Mount Merapi (Indonesia, 2010) – Pyroclastic flows killed > 350 people; lahars caused extensive damage downstream, emphasizing the need for multi‑hazard warning systems.

3.7 Management of Volcanic Risk

3.7.1 Forecasting & Early Warning
  • Integrated volcano monitoring networks (seismic, deformation, gas, thermal) provide multi‑parameter alerts.
  • Alert levels (e.g., “Advisory”, “Watch”, “Warning”) communicated to authorities and the public.
  • Use of probabilistic eruption forecasting models (e.g., Volcano Explosivity Index – VEI) to estimate likely impacts.
3.7.2 Mitigation Measures
  1. Structural
    • Engineering of diversion channels and check‑dams to control lahars.
    • Reinforced shelters built on higher ground for ash‑fall protection.
    • Installation of ash‑resistant ventilation and water‑filtration systems in critical facilities.
  2. Non‑structural
    • Zoning to restrict permanent settlement within high‑risk zones (e.g., < 5 km of active vent for PDCs).
    • Community‑based evacuation plans and regular drills.
    • Public education on ash‑clean‑up, respiratory protection and safe water storage.
    • Insurance schemes covering volcanic damage and loss of livelihood.
3.7.3 Emergency Response
  • Rapid deployment of ash‑clearance crews, distribution of masks and clean‑water supplies.
  • Establishment of temporary shelters outside PDC and lahar zones.
  • Coordination of health services to monitor respiratory illnesses and mental‑health impacts.
  • International assistance for large‑scale evacuations (e.g., UN OCHA support in the Philippines 1991).
3.7.4 Evaluation of Management Strategies
  • Effectiveness measured by reduced mortality, successful evacuations, and economic losses relative to predicted hazards.
  • Post‑event reviews (e.g., USGS after Pinatubo) highlight strengths (early warning) and weaknesses (long‑term ash‑fall management).
  • Challenges include maintaining monitoring equipment in remote areas and ensuring community compliance with evacuation orders.

4. Comparative Evaluation of Management Approaches

When answering exam questions, consider the following analytical framework:

  1. Hazard characteristics – frequency, intensity, spatial extent, predictability.
  2. Vulnerability factors – socioeconomic status, building quality, population density, governance.
  3. Management mix – balance of structural vs. non‑structural measures, early‑warning capacity, community participation.
  4. Cost‑effectiveness – short‑term emergency costs versus long‑term adaptation investment.
  5. Residual risk – what hazards remain after mitigation and how they are managed (insurance, contingency planning).

Use contrasting case studies (e.g., high‑income Japan vs. low‑income Bangladesh for cyclones; Japan vs. Haiti for earthquakes; Philippines vs. Iceland for volcanoes) to illustrate how economic resources, governance and cultural factors shape the success of risk‑reduction strategies.

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