Definitions of birth rate

Economic Development – Population (IGCSE 0455 5.3)

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1. Core demographic indicators

Indicator	What it measures	Formula (per 1,000 population)
Birth rate (BR)	Number of live births in a year	$$\text{BR}= \frac{\text{Live births in a year}}{\text{Mid‑year total population}}\times1{,}000$$
Death rate (DR)	Number of deaths (all ages) in a year	$$\text{DR}= \frac{\text{Deaths in a year}}{\text{Mid‑year total population}}\times1{,}000$$
Net migration rate (NMR)	Difference between people moving **in** and **out** of a country in a year	$$\text{NMR}= \frac{\text{Immigrants}-\text{Emigrants}}{\text{Mid‑year total population}}\times1{,}000$$
Natural increase (NI)	Population growth resulting from births and deaths only	$$\text{NI}= \text{BR} - \text{DR}$$

Key points

• Only **live births** are counted; still‑births are excluded.
• The denominator is the **mid‑year population estimate**, which smooths seasonal fluctuations.
• Multiplying by 1,000 expresses the rate per thousand people, making comparison between countries of different sizes easy.

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2. Factors that affect population growth (5.3.1)

Population change = natural increase + net migration. Each component is influenced by economic, social, cultural, political and environmental factors.

Factor	Why it varies
Birth rate	Income level – higher income usually leads to later marriage and fewer children. Education, especially of women – more schooling = lower fertility. Access to contraception and family‑planning services. Cultural or religious norms that value large families. Urbanisation – city life often limits family size.
Death rate	Quality of health care, nutrition and sanitation. Prevalence of disease (e.g., HIV/AIDS, malaria). Living standards and access to clean water. Age structure – older populations have higher death rates.
Net migration	Economic opportunities – higher wages attract immigrants. Political stability and safety – conflict or persecution drives emigration. Environmental pressures – climate‑related displacement, natural disasters. Family reunification and education opportunities. Immigration policies (visa rules, quotas, asylum procedures).

Worked example – natural increase

Country B (mid‑year population = 20 million) records 360 000 live births and 140 000 deaths in 2022.

$$\text{BR}= \frac{360{,}000}{20{,}000{,}000}\times1{,}000 = 18$$

$$\text{DR}= \frac{140{,}000}{20{,}000{,}000}\times1{,}000 = 7$$

$$\text{NI}= 18 - 7 = 11\ \text{people per 1,000 population}$$

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3. Why population size & structure matter (5.3.2)

• Labour supply – a larger working‑age cohort can raise real GDP per head, but only if jobs and skills match the demand.
• Demand for services – schools, hospitals, housing and transport must expand with the population.
• Resource pressure – water, food and energy demand rise; over‑use can lower living standards.
• Unemployment & under‑employment – if population growth outpaces job creation, unemployment rises.
• Optimum population – the size at which a country’s resources, technology and institutions can sustain a comfortable standard of living for all citizens. It is a trade‑off between the benefits of a larger workforce and the limits of natural and built resources.

Link to economic growth

A larger proportion of people in the working‑age group can increase real GDP per capita (the “demographic dividend”), provided there is adequate investment in education, health and job creation. Conversely, an ageing population can depress per‑capita output unless productivity gains or immigration offset the decline.

Age‑sex structure (population pyramid)

• Broad base – many children → high birth rate, future labour‑force growth, high demand for education and child health.
• Rectangular (column‑shaped) – similar numbers across ages → low fertility, ageing society, pressure on pensions and health‑care for the elderly.

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4. Demographic transition model (5.3.3)

Stage	Key characteristics	Typical BR & DR (per 1,000)	Development status
1 – Pre‑transition	High birth & death rates; population stable.	BR ≈ 30‑40, DR ≈ 30‑40	Very low‑income, limited health care.
2 – Early transition	Death rate falls (better health); birth rate remains high → rapid growth.	BR ≈ 30‑35, DR ≈ 10‑20	Low‑income moving towards industrialisation.
3 – Late transition	Birth rate begins to fall (family‑planning, education).	BR ≈ 15‑25, DR ≈ 5‑10	Middle‑income, urbanising.
4 – Post‑transition	Both rates low; population growth slows or stops.	BR ≈ 5‑12, DR ≈ 5‑10	High‑income, service‑based economies.

Implication for development

Countries in stages 2‑3 can reap a “demographic dividend” – a large working‑age cohort relative to dependents. Realising the dividend requires:

• Investment in quality education and health.
• Creation of productive jobs.
• Policies that encourage female labour‑force participation.

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5. Comparative snapshot: birth‑rate trends & development challenges

Country/region type	Typical birth rate (per 1,000)	Key development issues linked to the rate
Low‑income, high‑fertility (e.g., Sub‑Saharan Africa)	30 – 45	Rapid growth strains education, health, housing; difficulty creating enough jobs; pressure on natural resources.
Middle‑income, transitioning (e.g., India, Brazil)	15 – 25	Potential demographic dividend; need for skill development, urban infrastructure and decent employment.
High‑income, low‑fertility (e.g., Japan, Germany)	5 – 12	Ageing workforce, higher pension and health‑care costs, possible labour shortages; policies to attract migrants or raise fertility.

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6. Policy interventions – evaluation (AO3)

1. Family‑planning programmes (free contraceptives, awareness campaigns)
   • Advantages: reduces unintended births, lowers maternal/infant health risks, can accelerate the demographic transition.
   • Limitations: cultural or religious opposition, requires sustained funding, impact may take several years.
2. Education, especially of girls
   • Advantages: delays marriage, raises female labour‑force participation, leads to smaller families.
   • Limitations: needs quality schools, safe environments, and long‑term commitment.
3. Improved health services (maternal & child health, vaccination)
   • Advantages: lowers infant mortality, reducing the “insurance” motive for large families.
   • Limitations: high initial costs; must be paired with education to change fertility preferences.
4. Economic incentives (tax breaks for smaller families, reduced child allowances)
   • Advantages: direct financial motivation to limit family size.
   • Limitations: may be regressive, politically unpopular, effectiveness varies by cultural context.
5. Migration policy (skill‑based visas, refugee resettlement)
   • Advantages: can offset low birth rates in ageing societies, fill skill gaps.
   • Limitations: public resistance, integration challenges, may not solve long‑term demographic decline.

Evaluation tip for students: weigh short‑term vs. long‑term effects, identify who benefits (women, low‑income families, the state), and discuss any unintended consequences.

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7. Example calculations

Birth rate

Country A recorded 250 000 live births in 2023 and had a mid‑year population of 12 500 000.

$$\text{BR}= \frac{250{,}000}{12{,}500{,}000}\times1{,}000 = 20\ \text{births per 1,000 population}$$

Death rate (illustrative)

In the same year, 120 000 deaths were registered.

$$\text{DR}= \frac{120{,}000}{12{,}500{,}000}\times1{,}000 = 9.6\ \text{deaths per 1,000 population}$$

Net migration rate (illustrative)

Country A received 45 000 immigrants and 15 000 emigrants.

$$\text{NMR}= \frac{45{,}000-15{,}000}{12{,}500{,}000}\times1{,}000 = 2.4\ \text{net migrants per 1,000 population}$$

Natural increase (illustrative)

Using the BR and DR above:

$$\text{NI}= 20 - 9.6 = 10.4\ \text{people per 1,000 population}$$

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8. Suggested revision diagrams

• Line graph of birth‑rate trends (1950 – 2020) for a high‑income, a middle‑income and a low‑income country.
• Population pyramids showing a “high‑fertility” and a “low‑fertility” society.
• Flow diagram of the demographic transition (Stage 1 → 4) linking changes in BR, DR, natural increase and population growth.
• Cause‑effect map of policy interventions on birth rate, fertility, and economic development.