Lesson Plan

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Lesson Plan
Grade: Date: 17/01/2026
Subject: Business
Lesson Topic: time series analysis using four period centred moving average to forecast sales
Learning Objective/s:
  • Describe the purpose of time series analysis and the centred moving average in sales forecasting.
  • Calculate four‑period moving averages and centre them to derive the trend component.
  • Apply the centred moving average to produce a short‑term sales forecast.
  • Interpret the forecast results to inform business decisions such as inventory and production planning.
Materials Needed:
  • Projector or interactive whiteboard
  • Spreadsheet software (Excel or Google Sheets)
  • Printed sales data worksheet
  • Calculator
  • Graph paper or digital plotting tool
  • Teacher’s slide deck with example tables and charts
 Introduction:
Begin with a quick question: How can businesses predict next month’s sales using past data? Review students’ prior experience with simple averages and trend analysis. Explain that today they will learn a four‑period centred moving average to smooth data and generate a forecast, and they will be able to demonstrate the complete process by the end of the lesson.
Lesson Structure:
  1. Do‑Now (5’) – Students calculate a simple 4‑period moving average on a short data set provided on the worksheet.
  2. Mini‑lecture (10’) – Teacher explains the concept of centred moving averages, showing how to centre even‑period averages.
  3. Guided practice (15’) – Whole class works through the full 12‑month data, calculating moving averages, centring them, and identifying the trend.
  4. Forecasting activity (10’) – Students extend the trend to forecast the next month’s sales using the incremental change method.
  5. Interpretation discussion (10’) – Groups discuss how the forecast informs inventory and production decisions, referencing the key points.
  6. Check for understanding (5’) – Quick exit ticket where each student writes the formula for CMA and one implication of the forecast.
Conclusion:
Summarise how the centred moving average isolates the trend and enables a straightforward sales forecast. Ask students to submit an exit ticket stating the forecasted sales figure and one business action they would recommend. For homework, assign them to collect a real product’s monthly sales data and apply the same method to produce their own forecast.